How Climate Change is Shaping the Future of the Cacao Industry

 For centuries, the theoretical boundaries of human longevity have fascinated scientists and philosophers alike. The question of whether there is a definitive limit to human life has spurred extensive debate. Historically, these discussions were largely speculative, relying on personal observations and philosophical musings rather than empirical evidence. However, a significant turning point in the study of human mortality came in 1825 when British actuary Benjamin Gompertz introduced a mathematical model that revolutionized the understanding of aging and death.

 

Gompertz’s model demonstrated that the risk of death increased exponentially with age, meaning that as people aged, their probability of dying within a given period rose sharply. If this pattern were to continue indefinitely, it would imply that people would eventually reach an age where survival to the next year would be virtually impossible. However, Gompertz discovered a surprising phenomenon: as individuals reached old age, the rate at which their risk of death accelerated began to slow down. In other words, instead of continuing to rise unchecked, mortality rates eventually plateaued, indicating that while aging led to an increasing likelihood of death, it did not necessarily lead to an inevitable and immediate end.

 

This discovery laid the foundation for future research into human longevity. Over the following centuries, advances in data collection and mathematical modeling allowed scientists to refine and expand upon Gompertz’s findings. Researchers observed similar mortality patterns not only in humans but also in various other species, suggesting that the plateauing of death rates in old age might be a universal biological phenomenon rather than a unique feature of human life.

 

A particularly influential study in this ongoing debate was published in 2016 in the prestigious research journal Nature. The study, conducted by geneticist Jan Vijg of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and his colleagues, analyzed extensive mortality data from multiple countries spanning several decades. Their findings suggested that although the maximum reported age at death had risen significantly from the 1970s to the 1990s, this upward trend had largely stagnated since then, settling at an average maximum age of around 114.9 years. Based on this analysis, the researchers proposed that human longevity had reached an upper limit and that while exceptional cases like Jeanne Calment—who lived to the age of 122—could occur, they were statistical anomalies rather than indications of an ongoing increase in the human lifespan.

 

The conclusions of this study sparked intense controversy within the scientific community. Some researchers, particularly those who had long held a more pessimistic view of the possibilities for extending human life, supported the study’s findings and applauded its rigor. They argued that the data provided strong evidence that humans were approaching a biological ceiling beyond which significant increases in longevity were unlikely. However, many other scientists vehemently challenged the study’s methodology and conclusions. Nearly a dozen rebuttals were published in Nature and other leading scientific journals, raising questions about the statistical techniques used in the study and arguing that its conclusions were premature or overly deterministic.

 

The debate over human longevity took another dramatic turn in 2018 when a study published in the equally prestigious journal Science presented findings that directly contradicted the 2016 Nature study. Led by demographers Elisabetta Barbi of the University of Rome and Kenneth Wachter of the University of California, Berkeley, this research examined the survival trajectories of nearly 4,000 Italian individuals who had reached exceptionally advanced ages. Their findings painted a very different picture of human aging and mortality.

 

Barbi, Wachter, and their colleagues discovered that while the risk of death did increase exponentially up to about age 80, it subsequently began to slow. By the time individuals reached the age of 105, the likelihood of dying within the next year had leveled off at approximately 50 percent. This pattern continued at ages 106, 107, 108, and beyond, indicating that mortality rates plateaued rather than continuing to accelerate indefinitely. The authors of the study concluded that their findings strongly suggested that human longevity was still increasing over time and that if there was a maximum limit to human life, it had yet to be reached.

 

This research reignited the debate over whether an absolute ceiling for human lifespan exists. If mortality rates do indeed plateau at extreme old ages, then there may be no predetermined biological limit to how long a In just four West African nations, an industry worth over $100 billion is flourishing, supported by the tropical climates of Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. In these countries, rows of cacao trees, laden with pods, each containing dozens of precious seeds, form the backbone of the global chocolate industry. Once harvested, these seeds undergo processes of drying, roasting, and refinement, ultimately transforming into the beloved chocolate that has been a symbol of indulgence for centuries. Especially on Valentine's Day, chocolate serves as a well-recognized emblem of love and affection. However, as unpredictable weather patterns and climate change intensify, the once-romantic symbol of chocolate is increasingly becoming a representation of a far graver issue: the escalating impacts of climate change.

Recent reports, released last week, underscore the detrimental effects that rising global temperatures are having on cacao-producing regions, pushing them beyond their optimal climates. These findings reveal that the emissions of greenhouse gases such as oil, coal, and methane are not only warming the planet but also magnifying challenges within the cocoa belt. The result is an uptick in the cost of chocolate and an alarming trend for an industry many thought to be immune to such external forces. Kristina Dahl, the vice president of science at Climate Central, a nonprofit organization that published one of the reports, emphasized the gravity of the situation. "One of the world’s most cherished foods is at risk because of climate change," she warned. "I hope that when people hear that human activity is making it more difficult to grow cocoa, it will make them pause and reflect on our priorities. Perhaps we should focus more on mitigating climate change and protecting the food we hold so dear."

West Africa dominates global cacao production, with approximately 70% of the world's supply sourced from countries like Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. These nations are the largest producers of cacao, though similar tropical climates in places like Indonesia and Ecuador also support the growth of the precious crop. Cacao trees flourish in environments abundant in humidity, rainfall, nitrogen-rich soil, and natural wind protection—ideal conditions found in rainforests. Yet, as temperatures rise above 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit, these conditions turn hostile for cacao trees. The trees experience water stress, which stunts their growth and diminishes the quality and quantity of the beans. In 2023, the temperature surge resulted in six additional weeks of heat exceeding this threshold across nearly two-thirds of cacao-producing regions in West Africa, severely affecting the harvests, according to the Climate Central report.

In a comprehensive study, researchers analyzed temperature data from these regions, comparing it to a hypothetical world untouched by human-induced climate change. Between 2015 and 2024, they found that climate change had increased the number of days above the optimal temperature range for cacao growth by two to four weeks each year. These warmer days predominantly occurred during critical crop cycles when cacao plants are blooming and producing beans. Moreover, changing rainfall patterns are fostering more severe droughts, encouraging the spread of diseases like pod rot, and accelerating soil degradation. In Ghana, a drop in pollination rates, combined with rising temperatures, has contributed to even lower yields of cacao.

The impacts of climate change on the cacao industry became starkly evident in the record-high prices of cocoa seen last year. Unpredictable weather events such as droughts, floods, and the proliferation of plant diseases compounded the pressure on supply, driving cocoa prices to unprecedented levels. A report by Christian Aid, an organization dedicated to sustainable development, indicated a 14% drop in global cocoa production for the 2023-24 season. Consequently, cocoa futures surged to a 47-year high just ahead of Valentine’s Day, making chocolate not only a symbol of love but also a symbol of climate-induced scarcity.

Beyond chocolate, cocoa is a key ingredient in various products such as cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, which also make up a significant share of the global market. Despite this, chocolate remains the most significant end product, with the United States importing about $2.8 billion worth of cocoa annually, accounting for more than 10% of the world’s total supply. The increase in cocoa prices has reverberated throughout the global economy. According to data from the Federal Reserve, global cocoa prices spiked by 144% in December alone, more than doubling from the previous year. Alla Semenova, an economist at St. Mary's College of Maryland, explained that this surge represents the producer price—the amount global chocolate manufacturers pay for raw cacao beans. When these prices rise, it inevitably leads to higher costs for consumers. "As production costs increase, so do the prices consumers pay," said Semenova.

However, even as the cost of chocolate climbs, farmers in cacao-growing regions are not always reaping the rewards of higher market prices. Josephine George Francis, a farmer from Liberia, shared her experience of how West African cacao farmers are struggling financially due to the rising costs of growing crops in a changing climate. "We need a new approach that prioritizes sustainability and the well-being of farmers," George Francis urged. "We don’t see the benefits from the higher prices in the global market."

Cocoa isn't the only sweet ingredient threatened by the changing climate. Earlier this year, sugar prices also reached decade-long highs, driven by extreme weather events that disrupted global sugarcane production. As climate change continues to intensify, more crops are expected to face similar challenges, affecting not just the availability of cocoa and sugar but a wide range of agricultural products critical to the global food system.

As we move forward, it’s essential to consider the impact of climate change on industries that have long been part of the fabric of our daily lives. The challenges facing the cacao industry are not isolated, but part of a broader pattern of environmental disruptions that are threatening food security worldwide. The question remains: how will we respond to these challenges, not only for the sake of our beloved chocolate but for the future of all our essential crops?